It is that time of year again when rampant speculation and rumors are aplenty. It is time to put the facts on the table, put some facts out there and give our best thoughts on what the realignment will look like. No one can predict the UIL, we have more numbers, have talked to more coaches than anyone else and I guarantee you they will do something in 5A that no one saw coming. Is that a cop out on our part? Sure it is, but we are honest about it and we are not running around with tin foil on our heads, well at least not this time. So unwrap the tin foil, sit down, grab your favorite cup of coffee and let's get to what are the facts and what we think will happen.

THE RULES: First rule of realignment is YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT REALIGNMENT, second rule is YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT REALIGNMENT. Okay not really, but it would be really cool if it was.

Class 5A border- simple math, 245 teams will be the number, plus 1 with Houston Lee in basketball. The math is easy, see which teams have the 245 largest enrollments. Now comes the tricky part, teams can opt up to play at a higher classification for several reasons. First reason is because of travel hardships, this usually includes Laredo and Eagle Pass schools. Second is if your ISD has eight or more schools, thus school districts like Fort Bend and HISD can opt teams up to a higher classification. No ISD's meet this requirement in Centex except for Austin ISD and they have not historically opted teams up.

So what other exceptions are out there? New schools that are not fully four-year schools yet can turn in a number based on a formula the UIL uses. Thus Spring DeKaney, Fort Bend Travis and Clear Springs project how many students they would have. The final number we have for the bottom line in 5A is 2123 by New Caney. No centex teams that are new made 5A numbers

THE NUMBERS: 5A TEAMS MOVING TO 4A: San Marcos turned in 1978, Seguin turned in 2054

NEW SCHOOLS TO 5A: none

4A TEAMS MOVING TO 5A: Del Valle turned in over 2200, Vista Ridge turned in 2182 and New Braunfels turned in 2144, Pflugerville Connally turned in over 2100 (though we have not been able to confirm that number).

NUMBER OF DISTRICTS: Currently the configuartion is Central Texas has 13, 14 and 25 in 5A, which is three districts. In West Texas Abilene Cooper will be going to 4A thus making a five team district, we project 2 and 3 combining with Abilene High going to the Weatherford district. DFW will not be able to pick up the extra district because they lose a stunning eight teams that will go from 5A to 4A. Centex loses four teams but pick up three, thus a net loss. The Valley gains one 5A team so they can't house the extra district. Houston is the winner by default, thus begins the fun speculation. Figure the UIL will add the district to region 2 and give Houston districts 14, 15, and 16 in that region, the alternate is to give Houston a region 4 district which makes no sense.

So how will the districts look? Here are our projected districts and the reasons why.

District 12- number changes with the consolidation of a Region 1 district.

Belton

Bryan

College Station A&M Consolidated

Killeen Ellison

Killeen Harker Heights

Killeen Shoemaker

Temple

Georgetown

Coming and going: currently an seven team district we think they add an eigth team because of the addition of Vista Ridge and Connally to the Leander/Pflugerville and Round Rock district. This causes Georgetown to slide over.

WhY we project this district: There is no need to rock the boat in the Centex area, the districts are as tight as they can get and the UIL tries to keep those together. No other scenario makes sense for all three districts because even if you put Killeen ISD , Belton, Temple, and Leander ISD together, you run into a problem of creating a nine team district with Austin ISD, Westlake, Bastrop, Del VAlle, Bryan and A&M Consolidated. That puts New Braunfels in San Antonio creating a nine, seven, ten team districts.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Temple, A&M Consolidated, Bryan and Georgetown

District 13

Cedar Park

Cedar Park Vista Ridge

Leander

Pflugerville

Pflugerville Connally

Round Rock

Round Rock McNeil

Round Rock Stony Point

Round Rock Westwood

Coming and going: gone is Georgetown, Connally and Vista Ridge are coming to 5A.

WhY we project this district: As stated before the matchups to create even districts just are not there. Leander ISD, Pflugerville ISD and Round Rock ISD are all far north Austin area districts

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: Stony Point, Leadnder, Pflugerivlle, Connally

District 25

Ausitin High

Austin Akins

Austin Anderson

Austin Bowie

Austin Westlake

Bastrop

Del Valle

New Braunfels

Coming and going: gone are San Marcos and Seguin, coming is New Braunfels and Del Valle

WhY we project this district: Austin area plus those southeast of the area.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN 2007 IF THIS CONFIGURATION WAS USED: New Braunfels, Austin Bowie, Austin High, Westlake

RECAP: There will be some changes in the Centex area in 5A but nothing major, not like DFW, West Texas or Houston will have. Of course this is just our opinion backed by facts on who will go to 5A or 4A.

BIGGEST WINNERS: none these changes are basically a net wash for the area

BIGGEST LOSERS: Vista Ridge, out of the frying pan into the fire with their new district.